When I learned about Malcolm Gladwell’s new book, Outliers, I was a little apprehensive. He has built his argument about success at least partially around the notion that it takes 10,000 hours to become an expert at just about anything. The 10,000 hours principle is one of the cornerstones in the book I’m writing, Expert Power. I was worried that if Gladwell was looking at the same information I was looking at, he would have arrived at the same conclusions. Getting scooped wouldn’t have bothered me from a financial standpoint. Although I will put it in book form, all the information is on my blog for free. Getting the ideas out is more important than any financial reward. So if Gladwell came to the same conclusions, and the ideas got out, it would have made me happy.
Still, if Gladwell came to the same conclusions, I would not have had any contribution to make. That would have bothered me because I do want to make a contribution. As it turns out, Gladwell was looking at some of the same things I’ve been looking at but not all of them. Namely, he and I have been studying cognitive psychology, but most of the anecdotal evidence is different. Also our goals are not the same. Gladwell is studying what makes someone unusually successful, and I’ve been studying how those who did not achieve a college degree became educated. To the extent all the educated people I study have become successful, there is overlap. The key difference though, is Gladwell looks within and at systems to see how environments produce these unusually successful people as part of the explanation of success. I look at people who have been successful in spite of the fact that their environments were less than ideal.
Gladwell conveys how systems and environments favor certain people and not others. Hockey players born in January, an example Gladwell uses, are disproportionally represented among the professional hockey players because way back in little league the cut off date for all the leagues was January. This means that someone born on January 1st is likely to be one year more developed than the person born on December 31st in the same league. As a result, the child born in January would score more goals, receive more coaching, get sent to special camps and so forth. Over time, this small advantage not only persists, it snowballs. The child born on December 31st would have the disadvantage of being one of the least physically developed by virtue of age than everyone else in the league. He would not likely be singled out for all-star teams and would not receive the encouragement to continue. Eventually he quits. The hockey system, as Gladwell points out, allows one group of kids to amass the 10,000 hours of expertise required to become an expert more than it does another group of kids. This, in my view, is useful information; however, this belief in system favoritism can create a dependence on systems and a victim mentality for those not favored by the system.
The whole premise of my writing is to find people who bucked the system. To do this I study those who have become successful without a college degree. The education system and our culture tell us that you need to have a college degree in order to be successful, so it stands to reason that those with a college degree are favored by the system. So those who have succeeded without the college degree are the exceptions. They are like professional hockey players born in December. Gladwell ignores the exceptions and just talks about the trends.
Ignoring the exceptions is a huge mistake. It’s like physicists saying that light always moves in a straight line and just ignoring the fact that it bends around the sun. If we ignore the exceptions we won’t truly understand the rules. When the rules are accurately discovered, there are no exceptions.
I’ve been looking at the exceptions to better understand the rules — the physics of learning — and success as it relates to learning. Gladwell is right: Systems do favor certain people. But I am also right in that this favoritism can be overcome.
As a parent, this is of primary importance to me. I have two daughters, Madison and Sienna. Madison, now seven years old, was born in November. The cut off age for kindergarten is in October. This means that Madison was nearly a year more developed than most of the kids in her class. We would have liked to put her in school a year early, but the school system wouldn’t allow it. We decided to home school her for a year because she was clearly ready to start to learn how to read and we didn’t see any reason not to teach her simply because she wasn’t in school. As a result, by the time she got to kindergarten she had a head start on all the other kids. Now in first grade, as Gladwell would predict, she is getting assigned extra homework and has been singled out as the “smart” kid. The distance between her academic achievement and that of others in her class is beginning to become more pronounced.
My youngest daughter, Sienna, was born in September. This means that she is going to just make the cutoff for the school system. Even though her cognitive development tracks about on line with what Madison’s did at the age of three, when Sienna gets to kindergarten, she will have had 15 percent less time to develop than Madison did. That means she will likely not stand out as much as Madison and will not receive the extra attention in school Madison is enjoying.
From Gladwell’s perspective, this is just the luck of the draw. He would use a situation like this to explain someone’s success and show that Madison is not a genius and Sienna is not an idiot. Madison is just lucky and Sienna is not. The system favors Madison and creates a disadvantage to Sienna. For someone who is system dependent, this is true.
From my perspective this creates two unique parenting challenges. In school, Madison is constantly being told how “talented” and “smart” she is. I avoid these words like the plague. Instead, I tell her how much I like how she approaches her studies, and I always link her successes with the time and effort she puts into it. The reason I do this is because she may eventually want to develop a skill that other kids do better than her — like in music or dance for instance — subjects she has spent virtually no time on. Compared to a kid from a musical family who has been pursuing these things for a while, Madison may be discouraged from trying if a trait of resiliency isn’t nurtured. Linking success to effort is helping her build that resiliency.
In Sienna’s case, the challenge is also to build resiliency in her but for different reasons. She is going to need more of it right off the bat. As parents, my wife and I need to recognize that the system does not favor her so we need to make sure that she gets the extra attention at home that she is not going to get at school. If she is resilient, she won’t quit even if she starts out in the middle of the pack.
I meet this parenting challenge with the study of learning. What I study, I study for my girls. What I write, I write for my girls. The knowledge contained in my writing holds the tools I’m arming them with. If no one else in the world reads it but them, it was time well spent.
The Magic of Merit
While it’s true, no one becomes successful by themselves, some people have their hands held the whole way, while some have just a push that carries them across chasms of neglect and setbacks that would consume those with the wrong psychology. Frederick Douglass developed his abilities outside of any education system at all. Still, his master and his wife created his learning inertia — Sofia Auld by beginning to teach him to read and Hugh Auld by forbidding it. Although he learned little directly from them in the way of academics, they cemented the will for him to learn. He self-directed his education after that, as he arduously and painstakingly figured out how to read. Lincoln had someone who instilled in him that learning was important. It could have been his step-mother, or a teacher. I’ve argued that his reading of the Autobiography of Benjamin Franklin had a lot to do with it although that is an educated guess on my part. He only had about a year and a half of formal schooling yet it gave him the learning inertia to carry him out of obscurity. There are people like Douglass and Lincoln that show us that once ignited properly, the desire to learn, an essential component of success, does not extinguish and can be self-generating thereafter. This is what I am trying to teach my daughters. Ironically, teachers should at every stage be communicating to their students that they don’t need teachers. If teachers did this, then when a student winds up later with a bad teacher, no teacher or even bad parents, they still have a shot. Their inner resources are sufficient if properly primed.
What Gladwell missed in Outliers, and I believe willingly so, is the full link between success, opportunity and luck. Namely, he gives luck far more weight than it deserves. In the case of Bill Gates, Gladwell cites that Bill Gates’s school had a computer and other schools in the nation did not. This is true, however, many other students at that same school had access to the computer and didn’t become Bill Gates. Although Bill Gates did, most successful people don’t have such stark one in a million opportunities. It’s hard to look at someone like Benjamin Franklin and Frederick Douglass, for instance, and make the case that they were bestowed by birth with lucky circumstances that hundreds of thousands, if not millions of other people didn’t have access to.
Gladwell dismisses this. He dismisses the biography of Benjamin Franklin by writing:
“Lift up your heads” Robert Winthrop told the crowd many years ago at the unveiling of a statue of that great hero of American independence Benjamin Franklin, “and look at the image of a man who rose from nothing, who owed nothing to parentage or patronage, who enjoyed no advantages of early education which are not open — a hundredfold open — to yourselves, who performed the most menial services in the businesses in which his early life was employed, but who lived to stand before Kings, and died to leave a name which the world will never forget.”
In Outliers, I want to convince you that these kinds of personal explanations of success don’t work. People don’t rise from nothing. We owe something to parentage and patronage. The people who stand before kings may look like they did it all by themselves. But in fact they are invariably the beneficiaries of hidden advantages and extraordinary opportunities and cultural legacies that allow them to learn and work hard and make sense of the world in ways others cannot.
This is a complicated couple of paragraphs to unravel but I’ll give it a try.
I agree with most of what Gladwell says here. I agree that the notion of the self-made man is a myth (link to previous post) — everybody has help. What I have a problem with is his notion of “hidden advantages and extraordinary opportunities.” I don’t believe that opportunity itself is rare. It may seem rare, because each opportunity or break is unique. In other words any specific occurrence that Bill Gates, or Benjamin Franklin benefited from was unique and therefore improbable. In hindsight it looks like a lucky break. That doesn’t make opportunities extraordinary though.
To paraphrase Einstein, the odds of any specific person coming into existence are so small that they are practically zero. But, he goes on to say, it’s best not to argue probability after the fact. I think Gladwell’s argument suffers from this after-the-fact mode of thinking. Just as the improbability of any individual does not make the existence of people rare, the improbability of any specific opportunity, by rule, does not make opportunities rare. Most people simply don’t recognize opportunities or act on them.
When talking about opportunity I think it’s helpful to put opportunities into two different categories so we know what to look for: 1.) Learning opportunities — opportunities to develop expertise and 2). Success opportunities — Opportunities to be successful with one’s expertise. Because expertise attracts success opportunities, these two kinds of opportunities are not only linked but are sequential.
Many people try to skip the learning opportunities and try to go directly to success opportunities. Success opportunities invariably pay well and learning opportunities generally do not. We’re on the lookout for success opportunities all the time while we often miss learning opportunities. The work/reward ratio between the two kinds of opportunities is inversed. When developing expertise there is a lot of work and little reward. When expertise is developed, the work itself is much easier, and the rewards far greater. Without taking advantage of learning opportunities, success opportunities never come.
System Dependence
System bias is the stone Gladwell saddled himself with when he dismissed Benjamin Franklin. I have come to many of the same conclusions Gladwell has, not by dismissing Franklin, but by studying him closely. In addition to the 10,000 principle (link to previous post), I also believe in the social nature of learning and collaborative nature of success.
Gladwell shows how certain systems favor certain individuals. This is true but it is only relevant in so much as you accept what the system gives you. If the challenge is to amass 10,000 hours in an area of expertise to become an expert, and the system won’t allow some to get the 10,000 hours, those not favored by the system need to find or create another way. Being born in December isn’t necessarily a career death sentence to a hockey player. The challenge isn’t to be born in January so the system favors you; the goal is to amass 10,000 hours to become an expert in hockey. Do you understand the distinction? If not my old friend Ben Franklin can help.
Benjamin Franklin had a scholarly bent as a child. He was an avid reader and he was slated to go to Harvard. Then, like now, Harvard was considered the place to go if you wanted to become among the highly educated. His father changed his mind about sending Benjamin to Harvard, citing the expense. Franklin ended up with about two years of formal schooling. The system ended up not favoring Franklin and he was pretty sore about it. When this happened, he didn’t throw up his arms in defeat and say, “Well, I guess I won’t become educated.” No, he found another way to gain 10,000 hours in multiple areas of expertise. Among other things, he created his own school, his Junto, to further his intellectual development. He became renowned as a businessman, writer, scientist, politician and diplomat. All this because he did not accept what the system gave him.
The problem with a system bias is that it forces those scripted in it to look for system solutions — which can create a system dependency. Improving systems should be a part of the solution but it is only a part. Take for instance the trend that Gladwell points out that children with advantages do better than children without the same advantages. This is leading, I believe, to systems approaches that may do harm while trying to do good. Take the Head Start program, which is a program intended to get kids acclimated to academics at an earlier age. Once in kindergarten, the kids from the Head Start program tend to do better than the kids who have not. The same snowballing effect is going to occur. More kids from the Head Start program will be labeled “smart” while the kids who did not get the advantage of the system will get labeled as “not smart.” Let the snowballing begin. If by some bureaucratic miracle we can get every student into a Head Start program the snowball effect will revert to being based on age, only this time, it will be more pronounced as the percentage of age related development gets larger the earlier you start. I’m not saying that Head Start is a bad program, by the way. I’m just saying you won’t likely fix disparities with it. One way or another, some children will get a better start than others. A system dependence can make these early disparities fixed. Children with a late start need to believe that they can develop as fully as any other child. They need to believe in their own merit.
Early development is overrated anyway. Frederick Douglass didn’t learn to read and write until he was around twelve and wrote better than just about any author I’ve ever read. It’s not when you start. It’s how long you keep at it.
10,000 hours
The antidote to the shortcomings of any system is to develop resiliency — to teach kids not just what to learn but HOW to learn. If we affix kids on the notion that 10,00 hours is the key, kids who start out behind know that, eventually, they can catch up and even surpass other students. They just can’t give up. What happens in any given system is that too many kids give up well before the 10,000 hours mark. If the system doesn’t favor them, as the logic goes, why try?
Outliers has author, Seth Godin, talking about the 10,000 hours principle as well. In a recent post (link) Seth states:
In some ways, this is a restatement of the Dip. Being the best in the world brings extraordinary benefits, but it’s not easy to get there.
For me, though, some of the 10k analysis doesn’t hold up. The Doors (or Devo or the Bee Gees) for example, didn’t play together for 10,000 hours before they invented a new kind of rock. If the Doors had encountered significantly more competition for their brand of music, it’s not clear that they could have gotten away with succeeding as quickly as they did. Hey, Miley Cyrus wasn’t even 10,000 hours awake before she became a hit.
Doc Searls and Scoble didn’t blog for 10,000 hours before they became the best, most important bloggers in the world. Molly Katzen didn’t work on her recipes for 10,000 hours before she wrote the Moosewood Cookbook either.
I half agree with Seth. The 10,000 hours principle is a restatement of the dip Seth talks about. I even said so a year and a half ago when I read Seth’s book The Dip (link). I disagree, however, with Seth’s characterization of the 10,000 hours principle. The research doesn’t say that it takes 10,000 hours to become successful. It takes 10,000 hours to become an expert. Although expertise can’t guarantee success, it increases one’s chances.
Seth rightly points out that Doc Searls and Scoble didn’t have 10,000 of hours of blogging under their belts to become successful bloggers. To say that they didn’t have expertise that lead directly to their blogging success, however, is simply not true.
Here are links to Doc Searls’s biography (link) and to Scoble’s (link). According to Doc Searls’s “about” page on his blog, he states that in addition to being a marketing, PR and advertising veteran he is:
A lifelong writer whose byline has appeared in OMNI, Wired, PC Magazine, The Standard, The Sun, Upside, The Globe & Mail, Release 1.0 and lots of other places, including (of course) Linux Journal. Some archives are collected at Reality 2.0, which is at my personal portal, Searls.com, which is also home to my consultancy, The Searls Group.
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that a lifelong writer and marketing guru would do well as a blogger. This, by the way, is a good description of why Seth himself is so successful at blogging. It’s not because he is a great blogger per se; it’s because he is a great writer — a skill he developed into expertise long before he started blogging.
Again, expertise doesn’t guarantee success, but it makes it a hell of a lot more likely. This is what Malcolm Gladwell asserts. I believe he is right. Still, Seth does bring up the point that 10,000 hours of practice does not guarantee expertise. Again, I agree and have written about it before in a post about learning traps (link). I’ll reiterate this point in an upcoming post using examples of Renaissance artists that makes a pretty compelling case.
I recommend Outliers (link) because it will make you think about systems, culture and how it relates to success. If you want to turn Gladwell’s food for thought into a feast, I recommend some additional reading. I suggest reading Seth Godin’s The Dip (link) to understand the role of focus and perseverance. If you’re feeling ambitious, I recommend Cognitive Psychology and Instruction (link), which is a college textbook about what psychologists know about learning. You can also read my musings on this if you like, as this study has been my hobby for the last few years:
Unchain Your Brain: A 5 part series about learning: Link
Open Source Education — Open Source Education — The Key to Meritocracy in America: Link
Your Education Plan: Link
Getting in the Game (this is about education reform): Link
I know that’s a lot of reading. This is exactly the kind of learning opportunity most people pass on — the kind that is a “hidden” advantage only because people refuse to notice it. But there it is. I leave it to you.